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September 29, 2020 08:11 pm

In Brazil's Amazon a COVID-19 Resurgence Dashes Herd Immunity Hopes

Anthony Boadle, reporting for Reuters: [...] In April and May, so many Manaus residents were dying from COVID-19 that its hospitals collapsed and cemeteries could not dig graves fast enough. The city never imposed a full lockdown. Non-essential businesses were closed but many simply ignored social distancing guidelines. Then in June, deaths unexpectedly plummeted. Public health experts wondered whether so many residents had caught the virus that it had run out of new people to infect. Research posted last week to medRxiv, a website distributing unpublished papers on health science, estimated that 44% to 66% of the Manaus population was infected between the peak in mid-May and August. The study by the University of Sao Paulo's Institute of Tropical Medicine tested newly donated banked blood for antibodies to the virus and used a mathematical model to estimate contagion levels. The high infection rate suggested that herd immunity led to the dramatic drop in cases and deaths, the study said. Scientists estimate that up to 70 pct of the population may need to be protected against coronavirus to reach herd immunity. In Manaus, daily burials and cremations fell from a peak of 277 on May 1 to just 45 in mid-September, the mayor's office said. The COVID-19 death toll that officially peaked at 60 on April 30 dropped to just two or three a day by late August. Now the numbers are on the rise again.

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