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May 4, 2020 10:04 pm

As States Move to Reopen, 2 Projections Show Deaths Rising

A University of Washington forecast frequently cited by the White House projected a death toll of more than double what it was predicting last month, citing the "easing of social distancing measures" in many states. From a report: As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths over the next several weeks. The daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double the current number of about 1,750. The projections, based on government modeling pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases a day currently. The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, significant risks remain. And reopening the economy will make matters worse. "There remains a large number of counties whose burden continues to grow," the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned. As the administration privately predicted a sharp increase in deaths, a public model that has been frequently cited by the White House revised its own estimates and projected a death toll of more than double what it was predicting last month.The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington is now estimating that there will be nearly 135,000 deaths in the U.S. through the beginning of August -- more than double what it forecast on April 17, when it estimated 60,308 deaths by Aug. 4. (There have already been more than 68,000 deaths in the U.S.) The institute wrote that the revisions "reflect rising mobility in most U.S. states as well as the easing of social distancing measures expected in 31 states by May 11, indicating that growing contacts among people will promote transmission of the coronavirus."

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