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August 27, 2018 11:36 pm

New Computer System Helps Slash Cholera Cases in Yemen By Predicting Where Outbreaks Will Occur

Cholera cases in Yemen have been slashed by a new system that predicts where outbreaks will occur. From a report: Last year, there were more than 50,000 new cases in just one week -- this year, the numbers plummeted to about 2,500. The system has enabled aid workers to focus efforts on prevention several weeks in advance of an outbreak -- by monitoring rainfall. It comes as the UN says it is concerned about a possible "third wave" of the epidemic. The deployment of the technology has been coordinated by the UK's Department for International Development. [...] The UK's overseas aid department has worked with the Met Office to develop a system that predicts where cholera will occur four weeks ahead of time. The Met Office produces a rainfall forecast for Yemen. Using its supercomputers, it is to determine the specific amount of rain that will fall and pinpoint the areas it will hit within a 10km (six-mile) radius. These are important because downpours overwhelm the sewerage system and spread the infection. The forecasts are used in conjunction with a computer model developed by Prof Rita Colwell, at the University of Maryland, and Dr Antar Jutla, at West Virginia University. Together, this information enables scientists to predict the areas most likely to experience an outbreak, up to four weeks in advance.

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