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January 10, 2014 09:03 am GMT

After A Troubled 2013, The PC Market Looks For Stability

Screen Shot 2014-01-09 at 7.49.14 PMToday Gartner released a preliminary set of results for the global PC market in the fourth quarter of 2013, indicating that PC sales fell6.9% to 82.6 million units. 2013 has certainly been a historically tough year for PCs and the industry that builds and sells them. Gartner, with its fourth quarter predictions now mostly in place, estimates that the PC market shrank 10% during the year. Total unit volume was315.9 million units, a level that The Next Web points out is equivalent to shipments in 2009. I think that we can cap 2013′s PC market with a few statements. Let’s begin: The PC market had a very difficult year, shrinking around 10%. That 10% figure is directly in tune with predictions. With 315.9 million units shipped in the year, the PC market remains massive. That fact will keep Microsoft’s Windows operating system relevant, even as it sorts out remaining difficulties — developer interest gap, app deficit, training the world on a new UI, etc — with its new Windows 8.x platform. The folks that correctly predicted the 2013 PC unit volume decline anticipate that the market will contract less in 2014, and stabilize thereafter. That last point is not news. The prediction (IDC, not Gartner if you were curious) expects a 3.8% contraction in 2014, and then for the pace of sales to become “slightly positive in the longer term.” All told this means that the PC market should manage to stay above 300 million units per year for the forseeable future. Oh no, the world is ending. I’ve been as guilty as most in using hyperbolic language to describe the PC market. Plummeting, decimating, falling, crashing and the like have been the lingua franca of reporting on the year’s results. But historic declines can be accidentally conflated with existential threat if we are not careful. I think that in retrospect, 2013 will remain a decidedly black eye on the PC market’s history. But provided that the folks counting boxes have it right, the swan dive (I did it again) is all but in the pool. Why was 2013 such a bad year for PCs? You could point to a weak economy, issues regarding Windows 8 and its market reception, unimaginative new PCs from OEMs, rising tablet demand, a general shift to mobile, and a host of other reasons. There is no single cause. But it’s worth noting that what

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